Where is the Evidence?

    Before jumping out of an airplane with a
parachute, it’s reassuring to have evidence that it’s
safe.  As it happens, parachuting is about
24 times
safer than driving a car 10,000 miles. Who would
have guessed?

    When it comes to health, you will be happy to
know that jumping from planes isn’t one of my
recommendations.  However, when I do have a
recommendation, you can be sure that it has an
upside benefit that far outweighs the potential risk
based on the available evidence.  Surgeries of all
types have a risk that is higher than driving a car
but are often found to be acceptable treatments in
view of the alternatives.  The goal is to choose a
treatment with the minimum risk and the best
possible outcome.

    In most cases, medical evidence comes from
studies that have been observed in thousands and
sometimes millions of people.  Often this evidence is
in conflict with beliefs.  One of my greatest
challenges is overcoming misinformation about
vaccines that patients have seen in newspapers,
magazines, advertisements, or on the internet.  

    Granted, not all types of evidence are simple to
interpret or overwhelmingly convincing.  For
example, an expert opinion is nice but sometimes
based on a small number of experiences.  In
contrast, evidence from studies that involve
randomized subjects usually provides the highest
quality evidence.  In the case of vaccines,
randomized studies that involve large numbers of
people are possible.  Hence the evidence for
vaccines is very good.  Of course, studies are no
better than the assumptions they are based on.  In
the case of flu viruses, their ability to mutate and
create new strains can, in some years, make the
vaccines less effective than expected.

    In all studies, there is a chance that a possible
outlier event has not been considered.  In large
studies, this chance may be estimated to be very
small.  A metaphor that describes these outliers
(unexpected events) is the
black swan. The
metaphor is based on an ancient saying that
presumed black swans did not exist.  Despite
‘common wisdom’ a black swan was eventually
discovered.  In the case of experimental studies,
rare events that are beyond the realm of normal
expectations are always a possibility.  Although not
always welcomed, these events inevitably have the
effect of bringing existing beliefs into question.

    As an example of belief in conflict with evidence,
a Mayo Clinic study reported that up to 94% of
patients who self-report penicillin allergy actually
test negative for the allergy.  That's an unfortunate
belief given that it limits options when treating
conditions such as methicillin-sensitive
Staphylococcus aureus or Clostridium difficile.

    Gun ownership is a politically charged issue, with
health ramifications.  For a doctor, it’s hard to ignore
evidence that American children are more than 80
times more likely to die from gun homicide than their
peers in other countries.  I will leave to you the value
of gun ownership in your personal situation.  As a
doctor, I look at the evidence and the evidence
shows a strong correlation between gun ownership
and poor health outcomes.

    No doubt you have read about studies showing
evidence that a glass of wine provides health
benefits.  Interestingly, a glass of grape juice
provides more health benefits than wine and grapes
are an even healthier choice than grape juice.  
Unfortunately, the limited evidence most hear is
what the food distributor wants you to hear.  So, if
the sales pitch is for wine, guess which story you
hear?  While minimizing alcohol is recommended for
best nutrition and in particular for weight loss, I must
admit, I do enjoy a glass of wine with my husband
before dinner.

    The evidence for aspirin had an off year.  A
recent study in The New England Journal of
Medicine found that aspirin did not provide
significant improvements in outcomes related to
cardiovascular disease (CVD) or all-cause mortality,
and it may cause worse outcomes related to cancer
and hemorrhage. Studies published in The Lancet
and The New England Journal of Medicine found
aspirin to be of no benefit in primary prevention of
cardiovascular events in certain patient
populations.  For now, these studies remain
controversial until repeated by others.  In medicine,
one study rarely stands as strong evidence.  Only
after a study has been repeated many times with
many different populations does it become strong
evidence.  For now, both
AAFP and USPSTF
maintain a recommendation for the use of aspirin as
primary prevention in adults aged 50-59 who are at
an increased risk for CVD and a low risk of
bleeding.  As your doctor, I follow the science as it
evolves and offer revised opinions when the
evidence is compelling.

    Strong evidence shows that what we eat plays a
major role in determining our health.  Despite the
evidence, one in three U.S. adults has excess
weight and suffers from nonalcoholic fatty liver
disease.  Many studies show that a lack of nutrition
education is at the heart of the problem.  As an
example, a study in Nutrition found that patients who
consumed 35 grams of fiber a day and limited
protein to 0.8 grams a day per kilogram of body
weight lost an average of 4.4 pounds in 12 weeks.  
Unfortunately, few realize that the best evidence for
meeting these goals would be a plant-based whole
foods diet.
    
    What other evidence might surprise you?  Well, a
review of 16 studies linked fast food to asthma.  In
contrast with what gets advertised, that makes fast
food a very unhappy meal.

    As another example, the evidence shows that
adolescents and young adults who survived initial
self-harm are at significantly elevated risk for suicide
and need follow-up care. After an attempt at self-
harm, returning for regular visits with their doctor is
important.  Often the doctor is the adult figure that
prevents them from a second attempt.  
Unfortunately,  few primary care doctors are
compensated for mental health issues.  Alas, the
evidence doesn’t always change the system.

    One in three people develops the viral infection
called shingles in their lifetime.  If over age 50, that
should be a concern.  Complications from shingles
can include neuralgia, skin infections, organ failure,
and vision loss.  Fortunately, the vaccine has
proven to be 97 percent effective in patients aged
50-69 for up to four years after vaccination.  That’s
impressive evidence.  Still, beliefs often stand in the
way and cause many to reject vaccinations that
improve the odds for a healthy life.

    Staying abreast of the evidence in a world of
change is challenging. As a Family Practice doctor
that requires recertifying more often than any other
medical specialty.  Maintaining dual certifications in
Lifestyle Medicine and Family Medicine adds to that
challenge.  In fairness, it’s a challenge I am happy to
take on if it helps me provide you with the best care.

    Nancy Neighbors, MD
    Huntsville, Alabama


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